Today's slate
Every probability published for 2026-09-19, before first pitch, graded tonight. These change hourly as lineups post. The evidence that they are calibrated lives on the record.
Strikeout board
0.166 running Brier over 9872 line-gradesOne distribution per probable starter. The three lines below are fixed thresholds we set — 4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 for every start — not sportsbook lines; this engine consumes no odds feed. P(over) derives from the full strip by summation, never estimated separately. Each starter publishes when the opposing lineup posts, so the opposing-starter and matchup features are built against the nine he will actually face; if a lineup is not posted 60 minutes before first pitch, the prediction publishes from a roster-filtered projection instead. The archive records which (opp_nine_source). (An earlier lineup-aware feature was withdrawn 2026-07-19 — see the engine-era note on the record — but the publish trigger it describes is unchanged.)
Hits board
0.155 running Brier over 37999 gradesA full hits distribution per starting batter against the announced starter. From 2026-07-19, batter predictions publish only from posted starting lineups, as each team's card posts (typically 1 to 4 hours pre-game). The 2026-07-18 slate was the transition and was still 94% projected, so it is NOT part of the posted-only era despite following 7/17. A side whose lineup never posts pre-game gets no predictions that day. The 7/17 rows were projection-based, as declared at the time; the provenance of every row is labeled in the archive (lineup_source), so this claim is checkable rather than asserted.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin McGonigle | DET | vs Sean Burke | 69% | 27% | 6% |
| 1 | Sam Antonacci | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 64% | 24% | 4% |
| 2 | Hao-Yu Lee | DET | vs Sean Burke | 63% | 21% | 4% |
| 2 | Kyle Teel | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 52% | 16% | 3% |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 66% | 26% | 5% |
| 3 | Colt Keith | DET | vs Sean Burke | 51% | 15% | 3% |
| 4 | Riley Greene | DET | vs Sean Burke | 64% | 25% | 5% |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 59% | 21% | 4% |
| 5 | Dillon Dingler | DET | vs Sean Burke | 62% | 24% | 4% |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 54% | 16% | 2% |
| 6 | Max Clark | DET | vs Sean Burke | 65% | 25% | 5% |
| 6 | Colson Montgomery | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 54% | 19% | 3% |
| 7 | Chase Meidroth | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 66% | 24% | 5% |
| 7 | Ben Malgeri | DET | vs Sean Burke | 53% | 16% | 3% |
| 8 | Braden Montgomery | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 56% | 17% | 3% |
| 8 | Brett Callahan | DET | vs Sean Burke | 52% | 15% | 3% |
| 9 | John Peck | DET | vs Sean Burke | 56% | 19% | 3% |
| 9 | Brenton Doyle | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 50% | 16% | 3% |
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 69% | 25% | 6% |
| 1 | Jeremiah Jackson | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 54% | 17% | 3% |
| 2 | Pete Alonso | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 68% | 25% | 6% |
| 2 | Garrett Mitchell | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 61% | 23% | 5% |
| 3 | William Contreras | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 66% | 26% | 6% |
| 3 | Coby Mayo | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 63% | 22% | 3% |
| 4 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 63% | 24% | 5% |
| 4 | Andrew Vaughn | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 56% | 19% | 4% |
| 5 | Joey Ortiz | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 64% | 24% | 5% |
| 5 | Gunnar Henderson | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 64% | 24% | 6% |
| 6 | Gary Sánchez | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 55% | 18% | 3% |
| 6 | Rece Hinds | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 46% | 14% | 2% |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 63% | 21% | 4% |
| 7 | Christian Franklin | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 49% | 14% | 2% |
| 8 | Luis Lara | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 64% | 24% | 4% |
| 8 | Samuel Basallo | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 57% | 19% | 3% |
| 9 | Leody Taveras | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 55% | 19% | 3% |
| 9 | David Hamilton | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 53% | 18% | 3% |
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 69% | 29% | 7% |
| 1 | Roman Anthony | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 64% | 23% | 5% |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 69% | 28% | 7% |
| 2 | Mickey Gasper | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 65% | 25% | 5% |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 69% | 29% | 7% |
| 3 | Adley Rutschman | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 65% | 26% | 5% |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 67% | 26% | 6% |
| 4 | Wilyer Abreu | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 64% | 25% | 5% |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 68% | 30% | 6% |
| 5 | Nick Sogard | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 63% | 22% | 5% |
| 6 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 65% | 23% | 5% |
| 6 | Trevor Story | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 62% | 24% | 4% |
| 7 | Caleb Durbin | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 63% | 22% | 4% |
| 7 | Richie Palacios | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 58% | 16% | 3% |
| 8 | Jarren Duran | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 58% | 19% | 3% |
| 8 | Cedric Mullins | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 53% | 15% | 3% |
| 9 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 60% | 20% | 4% |
| 9 | Jorge Mateo | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 56% | 14% | 3% |
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 67% | 25% | 6% |
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 63% | 22% | 4% |
| 2 | Juan Soto | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 69% | 28% | 6% |
| 2 | Trea Turner | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 64% | 24% | 4% |
| 3 | Bo Bichette | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 69% | 28% | 7% |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 61% | 24% | 5% |
| 4 | Luis Arraez | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 71% | 30% | 8% |
| 4 | Carson Benge | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 68% | 27% | 5% |
| 5 | A.J. Ewing | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 65% | 26% | 5% |
| 5 | Alec Bohm | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 63% | 23% | 4% |
| 6 | Marcus Semien | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 63% | 23% | 5% |
| 6 | Bryson Stott | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 63% | 22% | 4% |
| 7 | Brandon Marsh | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 57% | 19% | 2% |
| 7 | Brett Baty | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 56% | 16% | 3% |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 59% | 19% | 4% |
| 8 | Francisco Alvarez | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 54% | 18% | 3% |
| 9 | Justin Crawford | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 54% | 17% | 3% |
| 9 | Ronny Mauricio | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 53% | 16% | 3% |
Athletics at Cleveland Guardians #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 69% | 28% | 8% |
| 1 | Henry Bolte | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 65% | 25% | 5% |
| 2 | José Ramírez | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 68% | 26% | 6% |
| 2 | Jeff McNeil | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 68% | 26% | 5% |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 69% | 27% | 6% |
| 3 | Shea Langeliers | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 64% | 24% | 6% |
| 4 | Jo Adell | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 66% | 22% | 4% |
| 4 | Lawrence Butler | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 65% | 24% | 5% |
| 5 | Angel Martínez | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 64% | 24% | 5% |
| 5 | Zack Gelof | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 62% | 22% | 4% |
| 6 | Donovan Walton | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 59% | 19% | 4% |
| 6 | David Fry | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 49% | 15% | 2% |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 63% | 26% | 5% |
| 7 | Carlos Cortes | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 60% | 20% | 3% |
| 8 | Austin Hedges | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 56% | 17% | 3% |
| 8 | Brian Serven | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 55% | 17% | 3% |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 62% | 22% | 5% |
| 9 | Alika Williams | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 54% | 17% | 3% |
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Konnor Griffin | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 67% | 27% | 6% |
| 1 | Carter Jensen | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 66% | 25% | 5% |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 67% | 24% | 5% |
| 2 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 66% | 27% | 6% |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 65% | 25% | 5% |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 59% | 22% | 4% |
| 4 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 69% | 27% | 6% |
| 4 | Rafael Flores Jr. | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 60% | 21% | 4% |
| 5 | Michael Massey | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 68% | 27% | 6% |
| 5 | Brandon Lowe | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 62% | 25% | 5% |
| 6 | Nick Gonzales | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 65% | 25% | 5% |
| 6 | Nick Loftin | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 60% | 21% | 4% |
| 7 | Ryan O'Hearn | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 64% | 24% | 5% |
| 7 | John Rave | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 59% | 19% | 4% |
| 8 | Ronny Simon | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 63% | 22% | 3% |
| 8 | Kyle Isbel | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 55% | 18% | 3% |
| 9 | Jake Mangum | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 63% | 25% | 5% |
| 9 | Isaac Collins | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 60% | 20% | 4% |
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 69% | 27% | 7% |
| 1 | Dane Myers | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 67% | 26% | 6% |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 71% | 29% | 7% |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 65% | 27% | 6% |
| 3 | Seiya Suzuki | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 68% | 28% | 6% |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 66% | 26% | 5% |
| 4 | Tyler Stephenson | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 62% | 21% | 4% |
| 4 | Tyrone Taylor | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 61% | 20% | 4% |
| 5 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 71% | 29% | 6% |
| 5 | Eugenio Suárez | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 59% | 21% | 4% |
| 6 | Michael Busch | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 65% | 25% | 5% |
| 6 | Juan Brito | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 63% | 22% | 5% |
| 7 | Carson Kelly | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 64% | 25% | 6% |
| 7 | JJ Bleday | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 57% | 19% | 3% |
| 8 | Matt Shaw | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 61% | 20% | 4% |
| 8 | Matt McLain | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 57% | 17% | 4% |
| 9 | Dansby Swanson | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 62% | 19% | 5% |
| 9 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 54% | 16% | 3% |
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Bateman | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 69% | 30% | 8% |
| 1 | Ezequiel Duran | TEX | vs José Soriano | 63% | 24% | 4% |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 68% | 28% | 6% |
| 2 | Corey Seager | TEX | vs José Soriano | 64% | 22% | 4% |
| 3 | Alejandro Kirk | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 69% | 28% | 6% |
| 3 | Josh Jung | TEX | vs José Soriano | 67% | 26% | 6% |
| 4 | George Springer | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 66% | 27% | 6% |
| 4 | Brandon Nimmo | TEX | vs José Soriano | 63% | 24% | 5% |
| 5 | Nathan Lukes | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 66% | 24% | 5% |
| 5 | Wyatt Langford | TEX | vs José Soriano | 64% | 22% | 4% |
| 6 | Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 63% | 23% | 4% |
| 6 | Jake Burger | TEX | vs José Soriano | 60% | 20% | 3% |
| 7 | Nicky Lopez | TEX | vs José Soriano | 58% | 18% | 3% |
| 7 | Josh Smith | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 56% | 17% | 4% |
| 8 | Andrés Giménez | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 60% | 22% | 4% |
| 8 | Danny Jansen | TEX | vs José Soriano | 53% | 17% | 3% |
| 9 | Myles Straw | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 59% | 20% | 4% |
| 9 | Evan Carter | TEX | vs José Soriano | 57% | 19% | 3% |
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 67% | 28% | 7% |
| 1 | Jeremy Peña | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 63% | 26% | 6% |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 70% | 29% | 6% |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 67% | 26% | 5% |
| 3 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 67% | 27% | 6% |
| 3 | Matt Olson | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 66% | 26% | 5% |
| 4 | Michael Harris II | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 69% | 28% | 6% |
| 4 | Jose Altuve | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 63% | 25% | 5% |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubón | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 68% | 27% | 6% |
| 5 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 65% | 25% | 6% |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 65% | 23% | 4% |
| 6 | Daulton Varsho | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 58% | 19% | 3% |
| 7 | Christian Walker | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 59% | 19% | 3% |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 59% | 19% | 4% |
| 8 | Austin Riley | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 59% | 20% | 4% |
| 8 | Cam Smith | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 56% | 18% | 3% |
| 9 | Sean Murphy | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 55% | 18% | 3% |
| 9 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 53% | 15% | 2% |
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 69% | 29% | 7% |
| 1 | José Fermín | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 66% | 23% | 5% |
| 2 | Daylen Lile | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 67% | 27% | 6% |
| 2 | Iván Herrera | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 65% | 24% | 5% |
| 3 | Jordan Walker | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 60% | 23% | 4% |
| 3 | Abimelec Ortiz | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 57% | 17% | 3% |
| 4 | CJ Abrams | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 66% | 27% | 6% |
| 4 | Leo Bernal | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 65% | 23% | 4% |
| 5 | Thomas Saggese | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 64% | 24% | 4% |
| 5 | Dylan Crews | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 63% | 24% | 4% |
| 6 | Masyn Winn | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 59% | 19% | 3% |
| 6 | Jorbit Vivas | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 56% | 17% | 4% |
| 7 | Nathan Church | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 64% | 22% | 4% |
| 7 | Andrés Chaparro | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 60% | 19% | 4% |
| 8 | Keibert Ruiz | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 61% | 23% | 5% |
| 8 | Pedro Pagés | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 49% | 15% | 2% |
| 9 | Nasim Nuñez | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 52% | 14% | 3% |
| 9 | Victor Scott II | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 51% | 14% | 2% |
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J.P. Crawford | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 68% | 30% | 8% |
| 1 | Jake McCarthy | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 66% | 27% | 5% |
| 2 | Randy Arozarena | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 71% | 30% | 9% |
| 2 | Connor Norby | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 63% | 22% | 4% |
| 3 | TJ Rumfield | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 69% | 29% | 5% |
| 3 | Dominic Canzone | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 68% | 26% | 5% |
| 4 | Hunter Goodman | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 63% | 24% | 5% |
| 4 | Cal Raleigh | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 62% | 22% | 5% |
| 5 | Julio Rodríguez | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 69% | 32% | 10% |
| 5 | Cole Carrigg | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 65% | 26% | 5% |
| 6 | Josh Naylor | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 72% | 30% | 10% |
| 6 | Kyle Karros | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 62% | 21% | 4% |
| 7 | Mickey Moniak | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 60% | 24% | 4% |
| 8 | Zac Veen | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 47% | 13% | 2% |
| 9 | Weston Wilson | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 60% | 18% | 4% |
| 9 | Ezequiel Tovar | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 50% | 15% | 3% |
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 68% | 28% | 6% |
| 1 | Lars Nootbaar | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 55% | 17% | 4% |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 68% | 33% | 10% |
| 2 | Ketel Marte | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 66% | 25% | 5% |
| 3 | Gabriel Moreno | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 68% | 25% | 6% |
| 3 | Luis García Jr. | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 66% | 26% | 6% |
| 4 | Geraldo Perdomo | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 62% | 22% | 5% |
| 4 | Heliot Ramos | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 59% | 21% | 4% |
| 5 | George Lombard Jr. | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 63% | 24% | 5% |
| 5 | Corbin Carroll | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 57% | 19% | 4% |
| 6 | Nolan Arenado | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 55% | 17% | 3% |
| 6 | Austin Wells | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 53% | 14% | 3% |
| 7 | Anthony Volpe | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 62% | 23% | 5% |
| 7 | Tim Tawa | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 53% | 18% | 3% |
| 8 | Ryan McMahon | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 59% | 17% | 3% |
| 8 | Jesús Sánchez | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 48% | 13% | 2% |
| 9 | José Caballero | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 61% | 21% | 4% |
| 9 | Jordan Lawlar | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 53% | 17% | 3% |
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 69% | 27% | 6% |
| 1 | Otto Lopez | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 68% | 30% | 9% |
| 2 | Heriberto Hernández | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 67% | 24% | 5% |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 65% | 25% | 4% |
| 3 | Kyle Stowers | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 64% | 24% | 5% |
| 3 | Manny Machado | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 61% | 20% | 4% |
| 4 | Javier Sanoja | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 69% | 27% | 5% |
| 4 | Ty France | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 64% | 26% | 7% |
| 5 | Xavier Edwards | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 66% | 25% | 5% |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 65% | 27% | 7% |
| 6 | Jakob Marsee | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 64% | 25% | 5% |
| 6 | Luis Campusano | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 61% | 20% | 4% |
| 7 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 62% | 20% | 4% |
| 7 | Agustín Ramírez | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 61% | 22% | 4% |
| 8 | Samad Taylor | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 61% | 22% | 4% |
| 8 | Joe Mack | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 58% | 19% | 3% |
| 9 | Esteury Ruiz | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 51% | 15% | 2% |
| 9 | Freddy Fermin | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 48% | 14% | 2% |
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 73% | 33% | 7% |
| 1 | Jonah Cox | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 61% | 23% | 4% |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 68% | 28% | 5% |
| 2 | Turner Hill | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 62% | 19% | 4% |
| 3 | Will Smith | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 71% | 30% | 7% |
| 3 | Victor Bericoto | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 54% | 18% | 2% |
| 4 | Max Muncy | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 69% | 26% | 5% |
| 4 | Jung Hoo Lee | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 68% | 29% | 6% |
| 5 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 65% | 25% | 4% |
| 5 | Brett Harris | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 48% | 13% | 2% |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 69% | 27% | 7% |
| 6 | Shay Whitcomb | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 54% | 17% | 4% |
| 7 | Andrew Knizner | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 48% | 14% | 2% |
| 8 | Tommy Edman | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 66% | 24% | 4% |
| 8 | Osleivis Basabe | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 53% | 16% | 3% |
| 9 | Alex Freeland | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 61% | 21% | 4% |
| 9 | Christian Koss | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 51% | 16% | 2% |
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ hit) | P(2+ hits) | P(3+ hits) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Neto | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 64% | 24% | 4% |
| 1 | Luke Keaschall | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 64% | 25% | 5% |
| 2 | Mike Trout | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 63% | 22% | 5% |
| 2 | Austin Martin | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 57% | 18% | 3% |
| 3 | Wade Meckler | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 64% | 25% | 4% |
| 3 | Ryan Jeffers | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 61% | 24% | 5% |
| 4 | Josh Bell | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 63% | 25% | 5% |
| 4 | Vaughn Grissom | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 62% | 22% | 4% |
| 5 | Brooks Lee | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 61% | 25% | 5% |
| 5 | Moisés Ballesteros | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 57% | 19% | 3% |
| 6 | Denzer Guzman | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 57% | 19% | 3% |
| 6 | Royce Lewis | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 56% | 20% | 3% |
| 7 | Victor Caratini | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 54% | 17% | 2% |
| 7 | Josh Lowe | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 50% | 14% | 2% |
| 8 | Walker Jenkins | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 53% | 15% | 3% |
| 8 | Jose Siri | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 49% | 15% | 2% |
| 9 | Ryan Kreidler | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 53% | 17% | 3% |
| 9 | Tyler Heineman | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 47% | 14% | 2% |
Home run board
0.098 running Brier over 13543 gradesP(1+ home run) per starting batter, the classic low-base-rate market. About 11% of graded starters have homered, so probabilities live in the 2 to 30% range, exactly where calibration is hardest to fake. Fully posted-lineups-only from 2026-07-19; the 2026-07-18 slate was a transition (94% still projected), and 7/17 was projection-era. Park HR context is a model feature, built from our own data and strictly prior. Probability bars on this board are drawn on a 0 to 40% scale for legibility; the printed number is the truth.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin McGonigle | DET | vs Sean Burke | 15% |
| 1 | Sam Antonacci | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 9% |
| 2 | Kyle Teel | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 14% |
| 2 | Hao-Yu Lee | DET | vs Sean Burke | 12% |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 11% |
| 3 | Colt Keith | DET | vs Sean Burke | 10% |
| 4 | Riley Greene | DET | vs Sean Burke | 18% |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 14% |
| 5 | Dillon Dingler | DET | vs Sean Burke | 12% |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 10% |
| 6 | Colson Montgomery | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 15% |
| 6 | Max Clark | DET | vs Sean Burke | 9% |
| 7 | Chase Meidroth | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 10% |
| 7 | Ben Malgeri | DET | vs Sean Burke | 9% |
| 8 | Brett Callahan | DET | vs Sean Burke | 10% |
| 8 | Braden Montgomery | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 9% |
| 9 | Brenton Doyle | CWS | vs Jackson Jobe | 11% |
| 9 | John Peck | DET | vs Sean Burke | 10% |
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 17% |
| 1 | Jeremiah Jackson | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 12% |
| 2 | Pete Alonso | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 19% |
| 2 | Garrett Mitchell | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 14% |
| 3 | Coby Mayo | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 19% |
| 3 | William Contreras | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 16% |
| 4 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 17% |
| 4 | Andrew Vaughn | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 10% |
| 5 | Joey Ortiz | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 11% |
| 5 | Gunnar Henderson | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 10% |
| 6 | Gary Sánchez | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 10% |
| 6 | Rece Hinds | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 9% |
| 7 | Christian Franklin | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 8% |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 7% |
| 8 | Samuel Basallo | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 12% |
| 8 | Luis Lara | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 8% |
| 9 | Leody Taveras | BAL | vs Robert Gasser | 10% |
| 9 | David Hamilton | MIL | vs Trevor Rogers | 8% |
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Anthony | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 17% |
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 17% |
| 2 | Mickey Gasper | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 17% |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 17% |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 17% |
| 3 | Adley Rutschman | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 16% |
| 4 | Wilyer Abreu | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 14% |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 10% |
| 5 | Nick Sogard | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 13% |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 3% |
| 6 | Victor Mesa Jr. | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 12% |
| 6 | Trevor Story | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 12% |
| 7 | Richie Palacios | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 14% |
| 7 | Caleb Durbin | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 9% |
| 8 | Jarren Duran | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 15% |
| 8 | Cedric Mullins | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 10% |
| 9 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | BOS | vs Freddy Peralta | 9% |
| 9 | Jorge Mateo | TB | vs Brayan Bello | 5% |
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 15% |
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 10% |
| 2 | Juan Soto | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 14% |
| 2 | Trea Turner | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 10% |
| 3 | Bo Bichette | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 13% |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 10% |
| 4 | Carson Benge | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 10% |
| 4 | Luis Arraez | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 4% |
| 5 | Alec Bohm | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 10% |
| 5 | A.J. Ewing | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 9% |
| 6 | Marcus Semien | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 9% |
| 6 | Bryson Stott | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 8% |
| 7 | Brett Baty | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 11% |
| 7 | Brandon Marsh | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 9% |
| 8 | Francisco Alvarez | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 13% |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 9% |
| 9 | Ronny Mauricio | NYM | vs Andrew Painter | 9% |
| 9 | Justin Crawford | PHI | vs Christian Scott | 7% |
Athletics at Cleveland Guardians #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Bolte | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 13% |
| 1 | Steven Kwan | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 4% |
| 2 | Jeff McNeil | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 10% |
| 2 | José Ramírez | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 9% |
| 3 | Shea Langeliers | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 17% |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 11% |
| 4 | Lawrence Butler | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 15% |
| 4 | Jo Adell | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 12% |
| 5 | Zack Gelof | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 13% |
| 5 | Angel Martínez | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 12% |
| 6 | Donovan Walton | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 9% |
| 6 | David Fry | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 8% |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 12% |
| 7 | Carlos Cortes | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 8% |
| 8 | Brian Serven | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 12% |
| 8 | Austin Hedges | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 10% |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | CLE | vs Jacob Lopez | 9% |
| 9 | Alika Williams | ATH | vs Tanner Bibee | 8% |
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter Jensen | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 18% |
| 1 | Konnor Griffin | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 8% |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 16% |
| 2 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 13% |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 16% |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 14% |
| 4 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 17% |
| 4 | Rafael Flores Jr. | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 15% |
| 5 | Brandon Lowe | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 14% |
| 5 | Michael Massey | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 11% |
| 6 | Nick Loftin | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 10% |
| 6 | Nick Gonzales | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 8% |
| 7 | John Rave | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 10% |
| 7 | Ryan O'Hearn | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 9% |
| 8 | Kyle Isbel | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 9% |
| 8 | Ronny Simon | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 9% |
| 9 | Jake Mangum | PIT | vs Noah Cameron | 6% |
| 9 | Isaac Collins | KC | vs Bubba Chandler | 6% |
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 22% |
| 1 | Dane Myers | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 12% |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 23% |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 15% |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 17% |
| 3 | Seiya Suzuki | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 15% |
| 4 | Tyler Stephenson | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 15% |
| 4 | Tyrone Taylor | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 10% |
| 5 | Eugenio Suárez | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 14% |
| 5 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 10% |
| 6 | Michael Busch | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 17% |
| 6 | Juan Brito | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 11% |
| 7 | Carson Kelly | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 12% |
| 7 | JJ Bleday | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 11% |
| 8 | Matt McLain | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 18% |
| 8 | Matt Shaw | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 10% |
| 9 | Dansby Swanson | CHC | vs Nick Lodolo | 11% |
| 9 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | CIN | vs Matthew Boyd | 11% |
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ezequiel Duran | TEX | vs José Soriano | 13% |
| 1 | Brett Bateman | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 8% |
| 2 | Corey Seager | TEX | vs José Soriano | 19% |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 14% |
| 3 | Alejandro Kirk | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 15% |
| 3 | Josh Jung | TEX | vs José Soriano | 14% |
| 4 | George Springer | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 14% |
| 4 | Brandon Nimmo | TEX | vs José Soriano | 12% |
| 5 | Wyatt Langford | TEX | vs José Soriano | 12% |
| 5 | Nathan Lukes | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 10% |
| 6 | Jake Burger | TEX | vs José Soriano | 25% |
| 6 | Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 19% |
| 7 | Josh Smith | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 10% |
| 7 | Nicky Lopez | TEX | vs José Soriano | 7% |
| 8 | Danny Jansen | TEX | vs José Soriano | 10% |
| 8 | Andrés Giménez | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 10% |
| 9 | Evan Carter | TEX | vs José Soriano | 9% |
| 9 | Myles Straw | TOR | vs Cal Quantrill | 7% |
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Peña | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 17% |
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 16% |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 17% |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 16% |
| 3 | Matt Olson | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 19% |
| 3 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 12% |
| 4 | Michael Harris II | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 16% |
| 4 | Jose Altuve | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 10% |
| 5 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 16% |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubón | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 12% |
| 6 | Daulton Varsho | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 15% |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 12% |
| 7 | Christian Walker | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 12% |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 10% |
| 8 | Austin Riley | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 14% |
| 8 | Cam Smith | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 12% |
| 9 | Sean Murphy | ATL | vs Hayden Wesneski | 12% |
| 9 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | HOU | vs Grant Holmes | 10% |
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 20% |
| 1 | José Fermín | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 9% |
| 2 | Daylen Lile | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 16% |
| 2 | Iván Herrera | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 10% |
| 3 | Jordan Walker | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 15% |
| 3 | Abimelec Ortiz | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 9% |
| 4 | CJ Abrams | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 17% |
| 4 | Leo Bernal | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 17% |
| 5 | Thomas Saggese | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 14% |
| 5 | Dylan Crews | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 11% |
| 6 | Masyn Winn | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 8% |
| 6 | Jorbit Vivas | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 5% |
| 7 | Andrés Chaparro | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 12% |
| 7 | Nathan Church | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 9% |
| 8 | Keibert Ruiz | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 10% |
| 8 | Pedro Pagés | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 8% |
| 9 | Victor Scott II | STL | vs Andrew Alvarez | 8% |
| 9 | Nasim Nuñez | WSH | vs Michael McGreevy | 6% |
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake McCarthy | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 11% |
| 1 | J.P. Crawford | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 10% |
| 2 | Randy Arozarena | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 18% |
| 2 | Connor Norby | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 10% |
| 3 | Dominic Canzone | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 13% |
| 3 | TJ Rumfield | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 10% |
| 4 | Cal Raleigh | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 19% |
| 4 | Hunter Goodman | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 11% |
| 5 | Julio Rodríguez | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 17% |
| 5 | Cole Carrigg | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 12% |
| 6 | Kyle Karros | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 11% |
| 6 | Josh Naylor | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 9% |
| 7 | Mickey Moniak | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 13% |
| 8 | Zac Veen | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 10% |
| 9 | Ezequiel Tovar | COL | vs Bryce Miller | 10% |
| 9 | Weston Wilson | SEA | vs Jose Quintana | 9% |
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 16% |
| 1 | Lars Nootbaar | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 11% |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 17% |
| 2 | Ketel Marte | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 14% |
| 3 | Luis García Jr. | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 18% |
| 3 | Gabriel Moreno | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 16% |
| 4 | Heliot Ramos | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 12% |
| 4 | Geraldo Perdomo | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 9% |
| 5 | Corbin Carroll | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 18% |
| 5 | George Lombard Jr. | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 12% |
| 6 | Nolan Arenado | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 13% |
| 6 | Austin Wells | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 12% |
| 7 | Anthony Volpe | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 12% |
| 7 | Tim Tawa | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 11% |
| 8 | Jesús Sánchez | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 10% |
| 8 | Ryan McMahon | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 9% |
| 9 | José Caballero | NYY | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 11% |
| 9 | Jordan Lawlar | AZ | vs Cam Schlittler | 10% |
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 20% |
| 1 | Otto Lopez | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 10% |
| 2 | Heriberto Hernández | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 15% |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 8% |
| 3 | Kyle Stowers | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 20% |
| 3 | Manny Machado | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 14% |
| 4 | Ty France | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 14% |
| 4 | Javier Sanoja | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 12% |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 20% |
| 5 | Xavier Edwards | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 9% |
| 6 | Jakob Marsee | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 12% |
| 6 | Luis Campusano | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 10% |
| 7 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 14% |
| 7 | Agustín Ramírez | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 11% |
| 8 | Joe Mack | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 10% |
| 8 | Samad Taylor | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 5% |
| 9 | Freddy Fermin | SD | vs Eury Pérez | 8% |
| 9 | Esteury Ruiz | MIA | vs Casey Mize | 8% |
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 16% |
| 1 | Jonah Cox | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 11% |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 11% |
| 2 | Turner Hill | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 10% |
| 3 | Will Smith | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 16% |
| 3 | Victor Bericoto | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 11% |
| 4 | Max Muncy | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 17% |
| 4 | Jung Hoo Lee | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 10% |
| 5 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 18% |
| 5 | Brett Harris | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 8% |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 16% |
| 6 | Shay Whitcomb | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 11% |
| 7 | Andrew Knizner | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 9% |
| 8 | Tommy Edman | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 14% |
| 8 | Osleivis Basabe | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 9% |
| 9 | Alex Freeland | LAD | vs Yunior Marte | 11% |
| 9 | Christian Koss | SF | vs Tarik Skubal | 9% |
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels #
| # | Batter | Team | Opposing starter | P(1+ HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Neto | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 14% |
| 1 | Luke Keaschall | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 10% |
| 2 | Mike Trout | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 12% |
| 2 | Austin Martin | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 10% |
| 3 | Ryan Jeffers | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 10% |
| 3 | Wade Meckler | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 7% |
| 4 | Josh Bell | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 12% |
| 4 | Vaughn Grissom | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 10% |
| 5 | Brooks Lee | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 11% |
| 5 | Moisés Ballesteros | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 11% |
| 6 | Royce Lewis | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 9% |
| 6 | Denzer Guzman | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 9% |
| 7 | Josh Lowe | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 10% |
| 7 | Victor Caratini | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 7% |
| 8 | Jose Siri | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 10% |
| 8 | Walker Jenkins | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 10% |
| 9 | Ryan Kreidler | MIN | vs Reid Detmers | 10% |
| 9 | Tyler Heineman | LAA | vs Joe Ryan | 3% |
Totals board
2.439 running CRPS over 802 graded gamesThe full run-total distribution per game, published before first pitch and graded by CRPS — the proper score for a whole distribution. Every P(over) below is a summation over the published strip, never a separate model, which is what stops this board and the run distributions from contradicting each other. 4 voided (postponement or a prediction stamped after first pitch); voids are disclosed, never deleted.
What clearing the launch gate does and does not mean
The gate is a floor, not a skill test. Our launch threshold was a backtest CRPS below 2.5678. A null model that knows one binary fact — which team is at home — and nothing else scores 2.5604 against that same gate. So clearing it means "not worse than knowing nothing", not "has an edge".
Any edge over climatology is marginal at best. On the 558-game holdout the model scored 2.5466 against climatology's 2.5678, and the paired-bootstrap 95% interval on that gap, [-0.0413, -0.0007], excludes zero by only 0.0007 — less than this engine's own seed-to-seed variation. We read that as suggestive, not established. The live record is what will settle it. It clears the pre-registered floor on 100% of 100 refits — that is refit reproducibility, not a confidence statement.
The companion winners market is not published: it cleared its gate on only 73% of 100 refits, so it failed and is being held. That miss is written down rather than quietly retried.
TOR at TEX #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.99 | 58% | 50% | 40% | posted/posted lineups |
BOS at TB #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.02 | 59% | 51% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
WSH at STL #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.95 | 59% | 51% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
MIA at SD #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.77 | 57% | 48% | 39% | posted/posted lineups |
KC at PIT #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.09 | 60% | 51% | 42% | posted/posted lineups |
PHI at NYM #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.00 | 58% | 50% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
SF at LAD #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.06 | 59% | 51% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
MIN at LAA #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.53 | 54% | 46% | 36% | posted/posted lineups |
ATL at HOU #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.94 | 59% | 50% | 40% | posted/posted lineups |
SEA at COL #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.87 | 68% | 60% | 50% | posted/posted lineups |
ATH at CLE #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.27 | 62% | 53% | 44% | posted/posted lineups |
CHC at CIN #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.41 | 63% | 55% | 45% | posted/posted lineups |
DET at CWS #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.96 | 59% | 50% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
MIL at BAL #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.03 | 59% | 51% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
NYY at AZ #
| Mean | Run-total distribution | P(over 7.5) | P(over 8.5) | P(over 9.5) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.02 | 59% | 51% | 41% | posted/posted lineups |
| Line | Graded | Brier | Climatology | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/under 7.5 | 802 | 0.2435 | 0.2430 | +0.0005 |
| Over/under 8.5 | 802 | 0.2488 | 0.2504 | -0.0016 |
| Over/under 9.5 | 802 | 0.2392 | 0.2458 | -0.0066 |
These lines are fixed at the same values for every start, not set to each pitcher's coin-flip point the way a market would. That places them well for a typical starter and badly for the extremes — an ace is a near-certain over at all three, a soft-tosser a near-certain under — so line Briers are flattered at both ends relative to what market-set lines would produce. Log-loss and the calibration curves score the whole distribution and do not have this problem. Benchmarking against de-vigged closing lines is goal CL-1 in the benchmarks, and is not live yet.
Probabilities, not picks. Not betting advice.